BIG MARLEY’S UFC 236 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card at Atlanta. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of cash from this week and that I can not wait to chase these huge prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $30k prize, then I will probably have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — STACK — Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the very first thing I did when salaries were published. I put these two fighters in my cash lineup and I began building out there. I anticipate this to be among the best fights ever and that I believe we get ~200 complete DK points from this fight, and the guaranteed win. I am ok with taking the loss when I can guarantee myself over 100 points together with the pile, but I think 150 is a secure projection for this fight and if we could lock up 3 additional wins we should win the majority of our cash games. Like I always say, we don’t want 6 wins for cash games so there is actually no need to pursue it. Just lock in a safe lineup that you think will score more than 400 total points and you ought to acquire more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP play of this week — Nikita Krylov — $8,200
Krylov is my GPP play of the week since he’s the definition of bust or boom. He either loses or scores more than 100 DK points. That is what we want in GPPs. This isn’t a confident pick in him winning it is just a shot at his ceiling which is what we look for in the huge GPPs where we are trying to win the top $30k prize. Krylov has finished all 24 of his own wins and he’s just seen the 3rd around once in his career. This is a great struggle to target on either side, but I am taking Krylov to get the win and I will have a fantastic amount of vulnerability to this weekend.
Underdog drama of this week — Dustin Poirier — $7,100
I needed to put Poirier here. I adore his floor and I believe he is a live underdog. But IF he wins, he will 100 percent wind up about the 1st place lineup at his 7.1k price-tag. He is likely to score over 100 DK points when he can find a success here and that is what we’re chasing in GPPs. Even in the event that you believe Max will dominate Poirier I believe that you should possess 1 hedge lineup using Poirier, and this is an all-in fight for me. Every lineup I build will begin with Dustin or Max and I’ll go on from there. Load up on this battle and be sure to find any Poirier exposure.
Fade of the week — Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was hard to pick a fade of the week this week because I believe that you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to pick a favorite though and I think that the favorite with among those reduced ceilings is Salmon. I’m picking him to win but he won’t be going for almost any takedowns and when he does not get a finish he probably doesn’t pay off his $8.6k price tag. I need at least 10x (86-points) when I am rostering someone and I don’t see him getting that unless he receives a knockout. Taha is tough so that I really don’t observe the knockout occurring. I think Salmon does get a unanimous decision win here but it likely scores in the 70’s and that will not win us the big $30k. That’s why he is my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 66-41 to get +220.23un (+$22,023) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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